Prediction markets are moving another step towards the infrastructure of conventional capital markets, with Kalshi partnering with FCA-regulated structured products issuer Otala.Markets to make exposure to selected event contracts available to European investors through listed securities.
Under the agreement, Otala will issue securities referencing markets traded on Kalshi, beginning with contracts linked to US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The first products are expected to list on Euronext Italy and will carry ISINs, allowing investors to access them through existing banking, brokerage and custody channels rather than establishing a direct relationship with Kalshi.
The structure effectively places a conventional securities wrapper around prediction-market exposure. Investors buy and hold an Otala-issued security, while Otala manages the corresponding exposure to the underlying Kalshi market. Otala will also handle product documentation, listing, market making and European distribution requirements.
For institutional investors, that could remove some of the practical friction associated with adding event contracts to existing trading operations. Instruments with ISINs that can sit within established custody and risk-management processes are considerably easier to accommodate than connectivity to an unfamiliar venue and asset class.
“Prediction markets are creating a new way for investors to price and manage risk around real-world events, but accessing these markets has not always been straightforward in Europe,” says Andy Ross, Head of Institutional at Kalshi. “Working with Otala allows us to extend the reach of Kalshi markets through the investment infrastructure that institutions in Europe regularly use.”
Building the institutional plumbing
The partnership follows a rapid expansion of the technology and distribution ecosystem developing around Kalshi and event contracts more broadly.
Trading Technologies announced in June that it would connect its institutional trading platform to Kalshi, providing execution and post-trade clearing infrastructure through workflows already used by its clients. Talos has subsequently integrated Kalshi event contracts into its institutional platform, while Horizon Trading Solutions has added market-making functionality and CryptoStruct has incorporated the venue into its low-latency trading and market-data infrastructure.
Those integrations address different pieces of the institutional stack: connectivity, execution algorithms, market making, data normalisation, risk management and clearing. The Otala partnership tackles a different problem – the instrument and distribution model through which investors gain exposure.
Rather than replicating its US market infrastructure in Europe, the partnership uses Otala’s existing regulatory and issuance framework to create securities whose value references Kalshi markets. Kalshi itself remains a US derivatives venue, designated as a contract market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020.
Otala, founded in 2014, specialises in structured products and securitisation, with technology covering product structuring through issuance and listing. Its existing model therefore provides much of the machinery required to turn the payoff from an event contract into an instrument that can move through conventional European securities infrastructure.
“Prediction markets represent an emerging asset class with clear relevance to both institutional and retail investors, but they must be delivered in a format that fits the way European investors already operate,” comments Lorenzo Calcagni, Executive Director at Otala.Markets.
From prediction to risk transfer
Starting with Federal Reserve decisions also puts the emphasis firmly on financial rather than sporting or political event markets.
Interest-rate decisions are already traded indirectly across government bonds, swaps, futures, currencies and equities. An event contract offers a more narrowly defined exposure: rather than trading the market consequences of a Fed decision, an investor can take a position on the decision itself.
That characteristic has been central to Kalshi’s push into institutional markets. Institutional interest has expanded rapidly during 2026, alongside efforts to distribute Kalshi data through established financial platforms and integrate the exchange with institutional trading technology.
Kalshi said in May that institutional trading volumes had risen 800% over the preceding six months, as it raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. The company has increasingly presented event contracts as tools for hedging and risk transfer as well as instruments for expressing directional views.
The European initiative provides another test of that proposition. Putting prediction-market payoffs inside listed securities may broaden their potential audience, but institutional adoption will ultimately depend on familiar considerations: liquidity, pricing, transaction costs, risk treatment and whether the contracts offer exposures that investors cannot replicate more efficiently elsewhere.
The infrastructure surrounding the market is nevertheless beginning to look markedly more conventional. Kalshi prices are increasingly being distributed through established financial data channels; institutional trading platforms are adding connectivity and execution functionality; market makers are gaining dedicated technology; and European investors may soon be able to hold event-linked exposure as an ISIN-bearing listed security.
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