Prediction markets have entered a phase of rapid commercial expansion, regulatory scrutiny, and institutional attention. What began as a niche segment centred on retail speculation has evolved into a serious market structure discussion; one that blends characteristics of sports betting, digital assets, and traditional exchange-traded instruments. As liquidity rises and new venues emerge, so too does the demand for robust, defensible integrity standards.
Against this backdrop, Eventus and Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360) have announced a strategic partnership aimed at establishing industry-wide surveillance and integrity frameworks for prediction markets. The collaboration unites IC360’s event-based integrity, insider-risk controls, and advisory capabilities with Eventus’s institutional-grade trade surveillance infrastructure, creating a combined lifecycle approach designed to meet the sector’s accelerating regulatory and operational needs.A Sector Fast Reaching Maturity
While prediction markets have historically been associated with retail trading, the entry of sophisticated liquidity providers marks a turning point. The scale and speed of market activity over the past year has reshaped demand for surveillance and integrity tooling, notes Eventus CEO Travis Schwab, in conversation with TradingTech Insight.
“Our client numbers in this space have surged over the past year,” he says. “There has been such a large influx of new prediction marketplaces that the entire capital markets sector can’t talk about anything else; frankly, the sheer volume of market activity we were seeing compelled us to make sure we were well positioned to meet demand. We always aim to steer new marketplaces in the right direction – just as we did with crypto – and prediction markets are a fascinating blend of crypto and traditional finance. We feel uniquely positioned to help guide the maturation of this space, particularly as the regulatory environment is so receptive. As we are situated in the middle of this ecosystem, our goal is to support the business while responsibly stewarding its growth and serving as a clearinghouse of information.”This rising interest is not limited to new retail flows. Market structure is shifting as major institutional actors weigh entry, observes Schwab.
“Retail has certainly been the primary driver initially, but institutional participation is essential for long-term viability. We are already seeing major players like Susquehanna and Robinhood enter the fray. While Robinhood obviously serves the retail market, Susquehanna is one of the world’s largest market makers, and we are aware of several other proprietary trading firms looking to make markets here as well. Ultimately, a successful marketplace demands a diverse mix of participants. It is fascinating from a trading perspective: beyond sports or politics, this provides a mechanism to take alternative risk positions on economic news. We are very early in the process, but I fully expect this to evolve into a tool for the institutional side too.”
This institutionalisation reinforces the need for surveillance frameworks that align with the expectations of global regulators, institutional liquidity providers, and end-users alike.
Creating a Unified Integrity Framework
IC360 and Eventus are stepping into a space where traditional surveillance models do not fully apply. Prediction markets require the fusion of market data, event information, participant behaviour, and – uniquely – external context such as social signals, officiating decisions, real-time injury reports, or political news cycles. This complexity makes trusted integrity infrastructure foundational to the sector’s scalability.
The partnership focuses on:
- Best-practice standards and regulatory frameworks for prediction market operators
- Real-time integrity monitoring and surveillance across both event-based and trading-based risks
- Jointly developed products that merge IC360’s event integrity capabilities with Eventus’s cross-asset surveillance platform
- Cross-venue, cross-data behavioural analytics suited to the unique dynamics of prediction markets
IC360 brings prohibited-trading controls, insider-risk prevention, and an integrity monitoring dashboard designed to detect manipulation and fraud tied to event outcomes. Eventus adapts its Validus platform – trusted by global exchanges, broker-dealers, and digital-asset venues – to the mechanics of event-based markets, enabling detection of insider activity, influence-based strategies, abnormal position-taking, and coordinated behaviour patterns.
This fusion aims to build a coherent governance structure for prediction markets as they expand across sports, politics, economics, and real-world events.
A New Data and Surveillance Challenge
One of the core debates in prediction market oversight concerns data. Unlike equities or futures, prediction market information is fluid, decentralised, and often unstructured. Surveillance must ingest data sources ranging from social sentiment to officiating feeds to economic news, each carrying different signals and noise characteristics.
“In TradFi, data is structured and well-understood, derived from established exchanges and vendors,” explains Schwab. “Crypto challenged that model slightly but has largely evolved toward a similar, institutionalised structure. Prediction markets, however, are fundamentally different, which is precisely why we are partnering with IC360 for the sports aspect. For political or economic markets, we will need to analyse social sentiment or other unstructured feeds. The real challenge lies in stitching this unstructured data together without generating ‘garbage’ alerts. Our focus is on detecting ‘insider trading’ – essentially, ensuring that someone cannot create a contract and then engage in material activities to unduly influence the outcome. While the bad behaviours remain the same, the data sets required to detect them differ, and that is where we are devoting a great deal of time.”
In other words, prediction markets invite familiar abuses – insider trading, collusion, influence-based manipulation – but hide them in unfamiliar data structures. Surveillance platforms must distinguish genuine informational edges from improper activity in markets where outcomes hinge on human, social, and political variables rather than balance sheets or supply/demand models.
Building Standards in a Fragmented Regulatory Landscape
Prediction markets, particularly sports markets, do not operate under a consistent federal regime. Regulation varies state by state and, in many cases, involves stakeholders who have never operated within financial market compliance frameworks. That fragmentation increases the importance of standardisation.
“Unlike traditional markets based on federal law, prediction markets – especially sports – are heavily driven by state regulations, creating unique challenges,” says Schwab. “We are dealing with advocacy groups and businesses like IC360 that originated outside the financial sphere and have an expertise in the vertical that complements our expertise in financial market compliance. We want to unite these diverse voices to help the industry establish ‘best practices’ and ensure integrity across sports, politics, and economic news. These markets drive decision-making and risk management, so participants must trust them. Safer markets encourage participation, improving liquidity and price discovery, and we aim to advocate for this next iteration.”
This aligns closely with the partnership’s stated mission: setting the foundational standards that can support global, multi-jurisdictional growth.
Complementary Strengths to Support Global Scale
The partnership has a clear division of responsibilities:
- IC360 contributes event integrity, insider-risk controls, and advisory services suited to sports and event-driven environments.
- Eventus provides the trade-surveillance backbone required for institutional trust, regulatory alignment, and scalable 24/7 monitoring.
With prediction markets blurring the boundaries between financial market microstructure and real-world event integrity, creating a “new class of surveillance and compliance risk,” Validus’s 24/7 trade surveillance, alerting, and case management, combined with IC360’s prohibited-trading controls and event-integrity systems, promise a unified defence that prediction market operators can implement immediately.
An Industry at an Inflection Point
Prediction markets are transitioning from novelty to infrastructure. For operators looking to scale, for institutions seeking to participate, and for regulators preparing new frameworks, integrity will be the defining currency of success. The Eventus–IC360 alliance represents one of the first attempts to set comprehensive, industry-wide standards for both market conduct and event integrity, bridging two historically separate worlds.
As liquidity deepens and institutional engagement grows, these markets may become tools not only for speculation but for risk management, hedging, sentiment forecasting, and alternative investment strategies. The foundations being laid today will shape how responsibly – and how far – the sector can grow.
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