Tradeweb, the global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, and Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market, have formed a strategic partnership to expand institutional access to Kalshi’s prediction market data. The collaboration also includes plans to support institutional-grade event contract trading via Tradeweb’s platform.
The announcement brings a regulated prediction market venue closer to mainstream institutional distribution channels. The extent to which that translates into integrated trading functionality, however, remains to be seen.
Data Integration First
According to the companies, the initial phase will focus on integrating Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities and market data into Tradeweb’s rates and credit marketplaces, delivered through user interfaces, APIs and data-download tools.
The firms also plan to co-develop analytics that combine prediction market probabilities with Tradeweb’s pricing, liquidity and macro-intelligence datasets.
A subsequent phase will explore the creation of an institutional-focused portal for event contracts – including contracts tied to macroeconomic releases, Federal Reserve policy decisions, political elections and other policy outcomes – with Tradeweb acting as the institutional front end.
Tradeweb: Evolving the Institutional Trading Stack
Billy Hult, CEO of Tradeweb, framed the partnership as part of a broader shift in how institutions assess and manage macro risk.
“Prediction markets are increasingly becoming a key part of the trading landscape, and have the potential to become an indicator for institutions to dynamically assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively,” Hult said. “As a leading global operator of electronic marketplaces across asset classes, Tradeweb has invested in Kalshi based on our belief that the institutional trading stack will soon evolve to pair high-quality event data with modern market structure. Together, we’re positioned to deliver prediction markets intelligence to clients and, over time, build the prediction markets trading infrastructure that meets the standards of our institutional community.”
The emphasis is currently on intelligence and infrastructure. The release does not specify when – or if – full execution of event contracts will be embedded within Tradeweb’s existing trading workflows.
Kalshi: Institutional Demand and Market Readiness
Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, pointed to longstanding institutional interest in forward-looking event markets.
“I witnessed the institutional demand for prediction markets firsthand ten years ago. Investors were trying to figure out how to price and manage risks related to Brexit and the upcoming election,” Mansour said. “Institutional adoption requires scale, regulation, trust, and substantial liquidity. Today, Kalshi has the scale, breadth of markets, and liquidity required to help institutions manage the risks they face. Partnering with Tradeweb will help us accelerate the adoption we are seeing.”
Mansour’s comments centre on regulatory status and liquidity as prerequisites for broader adoption. The announcement, however, does not provide detail on clearing arrangements, margin treatment or how such contracts would be incorporated into institutional risk and portfolio systems.
Operational and Market Structure Questions
While the partnership signals intent to integrate regulated prediction markets into institutional environments, several operational aspects remain unaddressed.
The firms have not outlined how event contracts would sit within OMS and EMS infrastructures, how capital treatment would apply, or how liquidity depth would support institutional trade sizes. These considerations are likely to determine whether prediction markets evolve beyond a data overlay into actively traded instruments within institutional portfolios.
For now, the collaboration positions Tradeweb and Kalshi to test institutional appetite for regulated event contracts. Further clarity on execution functionality, operational integration and product rollout will indicate whether this initiative represents incremental data expansion or a more substantive shift in institutional market structure.
Subscribe to our newsletter
